On the house
One free pick every game day, straight from the model — same maths, same write-up as the paid card. Graded with everything else on the results page.
NE @ SEACarries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes NE 43% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 2.8% against a devigged market 1.3% — +29% EV at +4500 (DraftKings).
SF @ LAA red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LA 58% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 2.1% against a devigged market 0.8% — +59% EV at +7500 (DraftKings).
ARI @ LACA red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LAC 68% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 2.3% — +80% EV at +2700 (FanDuel).
DEN @ KCProfiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes DEN 44% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 10.5% against a devigged market 4.9% — +58% EV at +1400 (DraftKings).
30 more picks with full write-ups on the weekly card.
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