On the house

Free picks, Week 7

One free pick every game day, straight from the model, same maths, same write-up as the paid card. Graded with everything else on the results page.

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NECHINE @ CHI
Thu 8:20 PM ET
D'Andre SwiftRBFree pick+480BetRivers

With Kyle Monangai out, Swift inherits the work: the model now has him on about 75% of CHI's carries inside the 5, up from 52%, and 66% of the carries. He's CHI's market favourite and rated above the market (17.7% against a devigged 14.8%), a thin +3% edge at +480 (BetRivers).

Model 17.7% · market 14.8% · edge +3%
KCSEAKC @ SEA
Sun 8:22 PM ET
Emanuel WilsonRBFree pick+625BetMGM

With Zach Charbonnet out, Wilson inherits the work: the model now has him on about 90% of SEA's carries inside the 5, up from 54%, and 73% of the carries. He's SEA's market favourite and rated above the market (14.9% against a devigged 10.9%), a thin +8% edge at +625 (BetMGM).

Model 14.9% · market 10.9% · edge +8%
DALPHIDAL @ PHI
Mon 8:18 PM ET
Javonte WilliamsRBFree pick+425BetRivers

Williams's role is growing: 82% of DAL's carries over the last two games, up from 70% on the season. He's DAL's market favourite and rated above the market (19.2% against a devigged 16.3%), a thin +1% edge at +425 (BetRivers).

Model 19.2% · market 16.3% · edge +1%

50 more picks with full write-ups on the weekly card.

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