The research
First touchdown stats
Original research from 1,087 regular-season NFL games of play-by-play, 2022–2025, the numbers underneath the model, in plain English.
68.6%
How Often Is the First Touchdown Scored in the First Quarter?
of first touchdowns are scored in the first quarter
65.6%
Do Favorites Score the First Touchdown More Often?
of the time, a 7+ point favorite scores the game's first TD
37.3%
Which Position Scores the First Touchdown Most Often?
of first touchdowns are scored by wide receivers
61%
Goal-Line Back vs Volume Back: Who Scores First?
of the time the goal-line back scores, when the roles split
19.1%
How Often Do Quarterbacks Score the First Touchdown?
of carries inside the 5-yard line go to quarterbacks
41.7%
Where on the Field Are First Touchdowns Scored From?
of first touchdowns are scored from inside the 5-yard line
30.3%
How Often Does the Team's Leading Scorer Get the First Touchdown?
of first TDs are scored by the team's #1 TD scorer that season
25.9%
How Often Does the Opening Drive Produce the First Touchdown?
of first touchdowns come on the game's opening drive
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