Across 1,087 regular-season NFL games from 2022 through 2025, 68.6% of each game's first touchdown came in the first quarter, and 94.6% arrived by halftime. Only 3.8% of games waited until the third quarter for their first touchdown, and just 1.6% until the fourth.
The intuition that the first touchdown is decided on the opening drive, however, is wrong. Just 25.9% of first touchdowns are scored on the game's first drive. The median first touchdown arrives on the third drive of the game, and 67% have been scored by the end of the fourth drive. That's why our model weighs a player's usage across the first four to five drives, not just the scripted opening possession.
For bettors, the practical takeaway is that first touchdown markets are early-game markets but not opening-drive markets: a player who rotates in on the second and third series still carries meaningful first-TD equity.
Source: 1,087 regular-season NFL games, 2022–2025, official play-by-play. Full method on the methodology page.