Receipts & data

Results

Every pick, graded automatically from official play-by-play — published before kickoff, flat one-unit stakes at the best available price, nothing edited after the fact. Plus the league-wide first-TD and red-zone usage leaders that drive the model.

Our track record

No graded weeks yet. Picks are published Thursdays and graded Tuesdays.

First TD leaders

Opening scores this season

Populates automatically after the first graded week (Tuesdays). This board counts how often each player has scored the game's first touchdown across every slate we've graded.

Red-zone usage leaders

2025 season to date

Goal-line carries

Share of team inside-5 rushes

  1. 1
    Ashton Jeanty85%
    LV · RB · 11
  2. 2
    Derrick Henry84%
    BAL · RB · 27
  3. 3
    Christian McCaffrey77%
    SF · RB · 20
  4. 4
    Josh Jacobs74%
    GB · RB · 20
  5. 5
    Jonathan Taylor67%
    IND · RB · 24
  6. 6
    Chase Brown65%
    CIN · RB · 13
  7. 7
    Rico Dowdle64%
    PIT · RB · 9
  8. 8
    Zach Charbonnet63%
    SEA · RB · 19
  9. 9
    David Montgomery63%
    HOU · RB · 17
  10. 10
    Javonte Williams61%
    DAL · RB · 20
  11. 11
    Kyren Williams53%
    LA · RB · 18
  12. 12
    D'Andre Swift50%
    CHI · RB · 14

Red-zone targets

Share of team inside-10 targets

  1. 1
    Amon-Ra St. Brown50%
    DET · WR · 21
  2. 2
    Davante Adams40%
    LA · WR · 23
  3. 3
    Dallas Goedert38%
    PHI · TE · 9
  4. 4
    Brock Bowers37%
    LV · TE · 10
  5. 5
    Justin Jefferson35%
    MIN · WR · 11
  6. 6
    Mark Andrews33%
    BAL · TE · 9
  7. 7
    Romeo Doubs33%
    NE · WR · 9
  8. 8
    Tyler Warren33%
    IND · TE · 13
  9. 9
    Trey McBride32%
    ARI · TE · 12
  10. 10
    Rashee Rice32%
    KC · WR · 15
  11. 11
    Drake London31%
    ATL · WR · 9
  12. 12
    Deebo Samuel Sr.30%
    SF · WR · 8

Snap share

Offensive snaps played

  1. 1
    Tre Tucker95%
    LV · WR · 17
  2. 2
    Ja'Marr Chase94%
    CIN · WR · 16
  3. 3
    Justin Jefferson94%
    MIN · WR · 17
  4. 4
    Cade Otton94%
    TB · TE · 16
  5. 5
    Trey McBride91%
    ARI · TE · 17
  6. 6
    Wan'Dale Robinson91%
    NYG · WR · 16
  7. 7
    Sam LaPorta91%
    DET · TE · 9
  8. 8
    A.J. Brown91%
    PHI · WR · 15
  9. 9
    Drake London91%
    ATL · WR · 12
  10. 10
    Jameson Williams90%
    DET · WR · 17
  11. 11
    Rome Odunze88%
    CHI · WR · 12
  12. 12
    Kyle Pitts88%
    ATL · TE · 17

Inside-5 carry share and inside-10 target share are the two usage signals that best predict first touchdowns — goal-line role beats raw volume when they diverge.