Receipts & data
Results
Graded automatically from official play-by-play, published before kickoff at the best available price, nothing edited after the fact. From week 2 onward the record counts one ★ Bet of the game per match: the model's top edge, chosen by a fixed rule before kickoff; the rest of the card is published as leans. Week 1 predates the rule and counts exactly as originally published, all 36 picks, including the Mahomes +3000 and Gibbs hits. Every pick is staked flat at 1u, the way the bets are actually placed.
Our track record
117
Picks
12
Hits
10%
Hit rate
+26.0u
Units
22.2%
ROI
Cumulative units, flat 1u stakes, best available price
In plain money: a bettor staking $100 a pick on every bet of the game is up +$2,595 this season.
Week 1 · 2026
2/33 hits · +2.2u · 6.7% ROI
| Miss | Hunter Henry | NE @ SEA | +1700 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mack Hollins | NE @ SEA | +4500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Colby Parkinson | SF @ LA | +2400 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Davis Allen | SF @ LA | +7000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyle Pitts | ATL @ PIT | +1800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Darnell Washington | ATL @ PIT | +2500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mark Andrews | BAL @ IND | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Tyler Warren | BAL @ IND | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Woody Marks | BUF @ HOU | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Dalton Schultz | BUF @ HOU | +1700 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Keon Coleman | BUF @ HOU | +3000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Dawson Knox | BUF @ HOU | +3500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyle Monangai | CHI @ CAR | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Colston Loveland | CHI @ CAR | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Cole Kmet | CHI @ CAR | +2800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Chase Brown | TB @ CIN | +550 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Emeka Egbuka | TB @ CIN | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Travis Hunter | CLE @ JAX | +3500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Isaiah Bond | CLE @ JAX | +6000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Jahmyr Gibbs | NO @ DET | +320 | 1u | +3.2u |
| Miss | Amon-Ra St. Brown | NO @ DET | +650 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mason Taylor | NYJ @ TEN | +2200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ @ TEN | +8000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Oronde Gadsden II | ARI @ LAC | +2800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Justin Herbert | ARI @ LAC | +2200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jordan Addison | GB @ MIN | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jauan Jennings | GB @ MIN | +1800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Ashton Jeanty | MIA @ LV | +390 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Tre Tucker | MIA @ LV | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | DAL @ NYG | +2500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Dak Prescott | DAL @ NYG | +3000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | RJ Harvey | DEN @ KC | +1400 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Patrick Mahomes | DEN @ KC | +3000 | 1u | +30.0u |
Week 2 · 2026
3/15 hits · +34u · 226.7% ROI
| Miss | Dawson Knox | DET @ BUF | +3300 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Olamide Zaccheaus | CAR @ ATL | +3500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Alvin Kamara | NO @ BAL | +2500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyle Monangai | MIN @ CHI | +1100 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Woody Marks | CIN @ HOU | +1300 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Denzel Boston | CLE @ TB | +2000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Isaiah Davis | GB @ NYJ | +7000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | TreVeyon Henderson | PIT @ NE | +1200 | 1u | +12.0u |
| Miss | Elic Ayomanor | PHI @ TEN | +5000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Tre Tucker | LV @ LAC | +1800 | 1u | +18.0u |
| Miss | Trey McBride | SEA @ ARI | +1000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kaytron Allen | WAS @ DAL | +4000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Ollie Gordon II | MIA @ SF | +6000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Tyler Warren | IND @ KC | +1600 | 1u | +16.0u |
| Miss | Isaiah Likely | NYG @ LA | +2000 | 1u | -1.0u |
Week 3 · 2026
2/16 hits · +5.5u · 34.4% ROI
| Miss | MarShawn Lloyd | ATL @ GB | +1100 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Keon Coleman | LAC @ BUF | +2200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Denzel Boston | CAR @ CLE | +1300 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mike Gesicki | CIN @ PIT | +2000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Sam LaPorta | NYJ @ DET | +1100 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | David Montgomery | HOU @ IND | +550 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Bhayshul Tuten | NE @ JAX | +800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Kenneth Walker III | KC @ MIA | +350 | 1u | +3.5u |
| Miss | Isaiah Likely | TEN @ NYG | +1300 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Rachaad White | SEA @ WAS | +1600 | 1u | +16.0u |
| Miss | Trey McBride | ARI @ SF | +1600 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Justin Jefferson | MIN @ TB | +950 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jake Ferguson | BAL @ DAL | +2000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Tre Tucker | LV @ NO | +1600 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Courtland Sutton | LA @ DEN | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Saquon Barkley | PHI @ CHI | +500 | 1u | -1.0u |
Week 4 · 2026
2/13 hits · +6u · 46.2% ROI
| Miss | Denzel Boston | PIT @ CLE | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Isaiah Likely | ARI @ NYG | +1700 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Dawson Knox | NE @ BUF | +2800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ @ CHI | +3500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mike Gesicki | JAX @ CIN | +1900 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | David Montgomery | DAL @ HOU | +525 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kenny Gainwell | GB @ TB | +2200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Dontayvion Wicks | LA @ PHI | +1900 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Nate Adkins | DEN @ SF | +6000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kenneth Walker III | KC @ LV | +425 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Emanuel Wilson | LAC @ SEA | +1100 | 1u | +11.0u |
| Hit | Chuba Hubbard | DET @ CAR | +600 | 1u | +6.0u |
| Miss | Juwan Johnson | ATL @ NO | +1400 | 1u | -1.0u |
Week 5 · 2026
0/15 hits · -15u · -100% ROI
| Miss | CeeDee Lamb | TB @ DAL | +625 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | PHI @ JAX | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | MarShawn Lloyd | CHI @ GB | +825 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mitchell Tinsley | CIN @ MIA | +1800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Quinshon Judkins | CLE @ NYJ | +650 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | David Montgomery | HOU @ TEN | +550 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Pat Freiermuth | IND @ PIT | +1500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Ashton Jeanty | LV @ NE | +550 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyler Murray | MIN @ NO | +2000 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Rachaad White | NYG @ WAS | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Omarion Hampton | DEN @ LAC | +850 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Sam LaPorta | DET @ ARI | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Christian McCaffrey | SF @ SEA | +500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Bijan Robinson | BAL @ ATL | +290 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyren Williams | BUF @ LA | +500 | 1u | -1.0u |
Week 6 · 2026
2/11 hits · +1.45u · 13.2% ROI
| Miss | Emanuel Wilson | SEA @ DEN | +550 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Woody Marks | HOU @ JAX | +725 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Bijan Robinson | CHI @ ATL | +400 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Jonathan Taylor | TEN @ IND | +270 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Rhamondre Stevenson | NYJ @ NE | +340 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Isaiah Likely | NO @ NYG | +1200 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyren Williams | ARI @ LA | +400 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Hit | Ashton Jeanty | BUF @ LV | +725 | 1u | +7.3u |
| Hit | Kenneth Walker III | LAC @ KC | +320 | 1u | +3.2u |
| Miss | Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | +450 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Christian McCaffrey | WAS @ SF | +370 | 1u | -1.0u |
Week 7 · 2026
1/14 hits · -8.2u · -58.6% ROI
| Hit | D'Andre Swift | NE @ CHI | +480 | 1u | +4.8u |
| Miss | Jaylen Warren | PIT @ NO | +500 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | George Kittle | SF @ ATL | +850 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Mark Andrews | CIN @ BAL | +1600 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Chuba Hubbard | TB @ CAR | +480 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Quinshon Judkins | CLE @ TEN | +750 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Woody Marks | NYG @ HOU | +475 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Kyler Murray | IND @ MIN | +1800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Garrett Wilson | MIA @ NYJ | +800 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | RJ Harvey | DEN @ ARI | +1400 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Sam LaPorta | GB @ DET | +1150 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Ashton Jeanty | LA @ LV | +600 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Emanuel Wilson | KC @ SEA | +625 | 1u | -1.0u |
| Miss | Javonte Williams | DAL @ PHI | +425 | 1u | -1.0u |
Looking for who actually scores first? Every opening touchdown this season, plus the goal-line and red-zone usage that predicts the next one, lives on the Scorers page.