Methodology

Nobody scores enough first touchdowns to model them directly, even a star scores a handful per season. So the model splits the question into parts it can actually estimate: the probability the game has a touchdown at all (99.3%), the probability the first one is scored by an offense rather than a defense or return unit (94.3%), which team scores it, and finally which player scores it given that their team does.

The point spread is the strongest single predictor. Fit against every game from 2022 through 2025, a one-point move in the spread shifts first-touchdown probability by just under two percentage points. A pick'em home team scores first 51.7% of the time; a seven-point favorite, 64.4%.

Opportunity beats talent, and the right opportunity metric depends on how a player scores. For rushing touchdowns, carries inside the 5-yard line beat total carries decisively, when a team's goal-line back and volume back are different players, the goal-line back scores the first rushing touchdown 61% of the time. For tight ends, red-zone targets are roughly twice as predictive as overall targets. For wide receivers it's a blend: nearly a quarter of first touchdowns are 20+ yard plays, so volume still matters.

Usage shares blend last season with the current one, weighting in-season data more heavily as the year goes on, with two exceptions where recent film outranks history. A player who changed teams is read from his current team's usage only: last year's shares describe a different offense, and blending them in produces confident nonsense. And when a player's role visibly collapses or explodes versus last season, the model re-weights hard toward what he's doing now rather than what he used to do.

First touchdown markets carry roughly 19% vigorish, about four times a normal side. We take the consensus across five sportsbooks, remove the vig with the power method (which handles longshots correctly where proportional devigging doesn't), and compare the model's number to the true market price. A value play requires at least a 10% edge at the best available price, quoted at three or more books.

It suppresses picks it can't stand behind. Rookies and players without meaningful prior usage are flagged, and when they hold a meaningful share of a team's market, the whole team is marked reduced-confidence and its picks are withheld. A player whose role has been taken from him this season, the demoted starter still carrying last year's numbers, is barred from picks entirely, and no bet of the game ships on a role the current depth chart doesn't support. Edges above +100% are treated as data artifacts, not free money. Play-by-play is re-pulled fresh for every run, never served from a stale cache.

Every pick is published before kickoff and graded automatically from official play-by-play. Nothing is edited after the fact.