Quarterbacks score 7.8% of all first touchdowns, modest as a group, but the mechanism behind it is the single most underpriced angle in the market. QBs take 19.1% of all carries inside the 5-yard line, and they convert those carries into touchdowns 45.2% of the time, better than running backs, who convert at 37.2%.
The tush push era changed the geometry of the goal line. On teams that trust the sneak, the quarterback effectively owns the final yard, which converts directly into first-touchdown equity that casual bettors assign to the running back by default.
The practical filter: on sneak-heavy teams, the quarterback deserves a probability bump and the goal-line back a haircut. Our model applies exactly this through inside-5 carry shares, it's why a starting quarterback at +2000 or longer will occasionally surface as a value play on our card.
Source: 1,087 regular-season NFL games, 2022–2025, official play-by-play. Full method on the methodology page.