When one back gets the volume and a different back gets the goal-line work, the goal-line back wins the first-touchdown battle 61% of the time. That's one of the cleanest findings in our 1,087-game study: carries inside the 5-yard line predict first rushing touchdowns better than total carries do, and it isn't close when the two roles diverge.
The mechanism is simple: 41.7% of all first touchdowns are punched in from inside the 5-yard line, and 63.7% of first rushing touchdowns specifically. Whoever stands behind center, or takes the handoff, at the 2-yard line owns that moment, regardless of who carried the ball the previous 60 yards.
For handicapping, this is the vulture rule: before backing any running back in a first-TD market, check who actually takes the team's carries inside the 5. A volume back priced at +500 with no goal-line role is one of the most reliably overpriced tickets in the market.
Source: 1,087 regular-season NFL games, 2022–2025, official play-by-play. Full method on the methodology page.