The goal line dominates: 41.7% of first touchdowns are scored from inside the 5-yard line and 58.6% from inside the 10. But the tail matters too, 23.7% of first touchdowns are plays of 20 yards or more, which is why deep-threat receivers never have zero equity in this market.
The geometry splits sharply by play type. Of first touchdowns scored on the ground, 63.7% come from inside the 5, rushing first TDs are overwhelmingly a goal-line phenomenon. Passing first touchdowns are far more spread out: only 26.8% come from inside the 5, and the deep ball does real work.
This is why our model scores rushers and receivers on different evidence: inside-5 carry share for the ground game, a blend of overall and inside-10 target share for receivers, and for tight ends specifically, red-zone targets are roughly twice as predictive as total volume.
Source: 1,087 regular-season NFL games, 2022–2025, official play-by-play. Full method on the methodology page.