23 targets leads ARI's target tree, 4 of them inside the 10; for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as volume. ARI have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 2 this season (6 of 17 last year); SF have conceded it in 1 of 2 (7 of 17 last year). The model makes ARI 33% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 8.5% against a devigged market 4.3%: +45% EV at +1600 (DraftKings).
Model 8.5%, market 4.3%, edge +45%