Week 3 · the locked card
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Falcons at PackersFirst touchdown odds and our picks, kickoff Thu 8:15pm ET.
Bet of the game
MarShawn Lloyd +1100
At BetMGM. Model 16.2%, market 6.1%.
Missed
To score first
GB 60%
From the spread, GB -4.7
Market favorite
Bijan Robinson
+480, the shortest price
First touchdown
Christian Watson
GB scored first, +800
2 in this game, each written up. The starred pick is the one that counts on the record.
MarShawn LloydRBBet of the gameValueFree pickMissed+1100BetMGM19 carries leads this backfield. When goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. GB have scored the game's opening TD in 2 of 2 this season (10 of 17 last year); ATL have conceded it in 1 of 2 (10 of 17 last year). The model makes GB 60% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 16.2% against a devigged market 6.1%: +94% EV at +1100 (BetMGM).
Model 16.2%, market 6.1%, edge +94%
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Best price for all 30 players the books list, shortest first.