18 targets leads NYG's target tree, 1 of them inside the 10; for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as volume. NYG have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 2 this season (10 of 17 last year); TEN have conceded it in 1 of 2 (12 of 17 last year). The model makes NYG 57% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 13.7% against a devigged market 4.8%: +92% EV at +1300 (FanDuel). Changed teams this offseason: the number is driven by his current-team usage, not last year's role elsewhere.
Model 13.7%, market 4.8%, edge +92%