54 carries leads this backfield, with 3 inside the 5 and 25 targets. When goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. LA have scored the game's opening TD in 3 of 4 this season (10 of 17 last year); BUF have conceded it in 3 of 4 (8 of 17 last year). The model makes LA 57% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 19.0% against a devigged market 12.3%: +14% EV at +500 (DraftKings).
Model 19.0%, market 12.3%, edge +14%