21 targets last week and 4 of Dallas's 10 targets inside the 10, the most on the team; 4 TDs this season. DAL have scored the game's opening TD in 2 of 4 this season. The model makes DAL 67% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 12.2% against a devigged market 11.7%. Priced at +625 on Kalshi (7.25x) at the time of the call; best sportsbook +575 (BetMGM, BetRivers). Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (Javonte Williams +380) on the play-calling read.
Model 12.2%, market 11.7%, edge -11%