Week 6 · the locked card
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Commanders at 49ersFirst touchdown odds and our picks, kickoff Mon 8:15pm ET.
Bet of the game
Christian McCaffrey +370
At BetRivers. Model 23.8%, market 19.5%.
Missed
To score first
SF 65%
From the spread, SF -7.5
Market favorite
Christian McCaffrey
+370, the shortest price
First touchdown
George Kittle
SF scored first, +800
4 in this game, each written up. The starred pick is the one that counts on the record.
Christian McCaffreyRBBet of the gameValueFree pickMissed+370BetRiversMcCaffrey owns SF's goal line: 8 of 9 carries inside the 5 this season (89%), on top of 44% of all carries. He's SF's market favourite and still underpriced: 23.8% against a devigged 19.5%, +12% EV at +370 (BetRivers). The spread makes SF 65% to score first. Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (John Bates) on the most-likely-scorer read.
Model 23.8%, market 19.5%, edge +12%
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Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Best price for all 28 players the books list, shortest first.