Nuggets at Thunder

First basket odds and our pick, tip-off 9:30pm ET.

Our pick

Nikola Jokic +600

At BetMGM. Model 15.2%, market 14.4%, fair +559.

Missed

Jump ball

Jokic v Holmgren

OKC 52% to win it

To score first

OKC 51%

The tip winner scores first 64% of the time

First basket

Cason Wallace

OKC won the tip and scored first

First basket odds at every book

Prices when we posted. Best price in green. Model is our chance, market is the books’ chance with the margin taken out.

Player	Model	Market	Fair	BetMGM	BetRivers	Fanatics	FanDuel	PartyCasino	SugarHouse	theScore Bet	Novig
Nikola JokicJumper	15%	14%	+559	+600	+450	+525	+550	+600	+450	+475	+545
Chet HolmgrenJumper	14%	11%	+598	+600	+650	+650	+650	+600	+650	+600
Jamal Murray	11%	13%	+799	+575	+550	+550	+600	+575	+550	+550	+590
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	10%	14%	+870	+575	+550	+550	+500	+575	+550	+475	+506
Jalen Williams	10%	11%	+902	+575	+800	+750	+800	+575	+800	+800	+809
Cason WallaceScored first	9%	8%	+1002	+850	+1200	+1000	+1100	+850	+1200	+1100	+1076
Aaron Gordon	9%	10%	+1026	+825	+800	+800	+950	+825	+800	+800	+900
Cameron Johnson	8%	7%	+1221	+1000	+1400	+1100	+1200	+1000	+1400	+1100
Isaiah Hartenstein	7%	9%	+1365	+850	+900	+750	+900	+850	+900	+900
Christian Braun	7%	8%	+1382	+1100	+900	+1000	+1000	+1100	+900	+1000