A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LAC 68% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 2.2% — +86% EV at +2800 (DraftKings).
Model 6.4%, market 2.2%, edge +86%