A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LAC 68% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 2.3% — +80% EV at +2700 (FanDuel).

Live in the sneak game — QBs take 19% of carries inside the 5 league-wide and convert them at 45%, better than the backs. The market habitually underprices quarterback goal-line equity. The model makes LAC 68% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 5.4% against a devigged market 3.0% — +25% EV at +2200 (DraftKings).