A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes ATL 42% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 3.7% — +16% EV at +1700 (DraftKings).

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes PIT 58% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 6.3% vs market 2.4% at +2500 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.