A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes BAL 55% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 12.5% vs market 5.6% at +1200 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes IND 45% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 9.3% vs market 4.3% at +1500 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.