A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes BUF 50% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 4.6% against a devigged market 1.8% — +66% EV at +3500 (DraftKings).

Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes BUF 50% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 5.0% against a devigged market 2.0% — +55% EV at +3000 (DraftKings).

Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes BUF 50% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 3.7% against a devigged market 1.7% — +53% EV at +4000 (DraftKings).

Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes HOU 50% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 10.2% against a devigged market 5.2% — +33% EV at +1200 (DraftKings).