Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes CHI 54% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 10.1% against a devigged market 5.4% — +21% EV at +1100 (DraftKings).

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes CHI 54% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 8.7% against a devigged market 5.4% — +13% EV at +1200 (FanDuel).