Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes JAX 67% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 3.7% against a devigged market 1.9% — +34% EV at +3500 (DraftKings).

Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes CLE 33% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 3.2% vs market 0.9% at +6000 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.