Live in the sneak game — QBs take 19% of carries inside the 5 league-wide and convert them at 45%, better than the backs. The market habitually underprices quarterback goal-line equity. The model makes DAL 54% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 3.9% against a devigged market 2.0% — +21% EV at +3000 (FanDuel).

Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes NYG 46% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 6.1% vs market 3.0% at +2200 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.