Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes DEN 44% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 10.5% against a devigged market 4.9% — +58% EV at +1400 (DraftKings).

Live in the sneak game — QBs take 19% of carries inside the 5 league-wide and convert them at 45%, better than the backs. The market habitually underprices quarterback goal-line equity. The model makes KC 56% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 4.6% vs market 2.0% at +3000 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.