Week 1 · the locked card
The guarantee: a red week means the next one is on us.
Graded on the public record every Tuesday. If the card you paid for finishes negative, your next week is credited automatically.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Patriots at SeahawksFirst touchdown odds and our picks, kickoff Wed 8:20pm ET.
Bet of the game
No pick
To score first
SEA 57%
From the spread, SEA -3.1. Thin early-season data
Market favorite
Rhamondre Stevenson
+600, the shortest price
First touchdown
Eli Raridon
NE scored first, +6000
2 in this game, each written up. The starred pick is the one that counts on the record.
Hunter HenryTEValueFree pickMissed+1700FanDuelA red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NE 43% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 3.8% — +14% EV at +1700 (FanDuel).
Model 6.4%, market 3.8%, edge +14%
1 more pick with full write-ups in this game. Unlocking the week opens every game.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Best price for all 33 players the books list, shortest first.