Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes NE 43% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 2.8% against a devigged market 1.3% — +29% EV at +4500 (DraftKings).

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NE 43% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.4% against a devigged market 3.8% — +14% EV at +1700 (FanDuel).