Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes DET 64% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 16.9% against a devigged market 9.9% — +26% EV at +650 (DraftKings).

Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes DET 64% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 28.4% against a devigged market 20.6% — +19% EV at +320 (BetRivers).