A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NYJ 47% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 2.4% vs market 0.8% at +7000 (FanDuel). A lean, not a table-thumper.

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NYJ 47% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 5.0% vs market 2.7% at +2200 (FanDuel). A lean, not a table-thumper.