A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LA 58% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 4.7% against a devigged market 2.9% — +18% EV at +2400 (BetRivers).
Model 4.7%, market 2.9%, edge +18%