A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes LA 58% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 2.1% against a devigged market 0.8% — +59% EV at +7500 (DraftKings).

A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes SF 42% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 3.2% vs market 1.6% at +4500 (FanDuel). A lean, not a table-thumper.