Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes TB 41% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 8.4% against a devigged market 4.5% — +26% EV at +1400 (DraftKings).

Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes CIN 59% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 21.7% vs market 11.6% at +550 (DraftKings). A lean, not a table-thumper.