A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes PHI 61% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 13.1% vs market 5.6% at +1150 (BetRivers). A lean, not a table-thumper.

Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes WAS 39% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 2.8% vs market 1.7% at +4000 (FanDuel). A lean, not a table-thumper.