49 picks across 16 games. A rated ★ bet of the game in each.
+Model probability vs the devigged market for every priced player
+Write-ups built from role data: carries, red zone looks, opening-score form
+Every price line-shopped across 5 sportsbooks
+Graded automatically in public every Tuesday
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First touchdown odds and our picks, kickoff Mon 8:15pm ET.
Bet of the game
Isaiah Likely +2000
At DraftKings. Model 9.4%, market 3.4%.
Missed
To score first
LA 64%
From the spread, LA -6.6
Market favorite
Kyren Williams
+420, the shortest price
First touchdown
Davante Adams
LA scored first, +675
The picks
4 in this game, each written up. The starred pick is the one that counts on the record.
Isaiah LikelyTEBet of the gameValueFree pickMissed+2000DraftKings
A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NYG 36% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 9.4% against a devigged market 3.4% — +97% EV at +2000 (DraftKings). Changed teams this offseason — the number is driven by his current-team usage, not last year's role elsewhere.
Profiles as the goal-line hammer in this backfield. 41.7% of first TDs are punched in from inside the 5, and when goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. The model makes NYG 36% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 5.8% against a devigged market 2.3% — +80% EV at +3000 (FanDuel).
Model 5.8%, market 2.3%, edge +80%
2 more picks with full write-ups in this game. Unlocking the week opens every game.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
First touchdown odds
Best price for all 34 players the books list, shortest first.