Week 2 · the locked card

49 picks across 16 games. A rated ★ bet of the game in each.

+Model probability vs the devigged market for every priced player
+Write-ups built from role data: carries, red zone looks, opening-score form
+Every price line-shopped across 5 sportsbooks
+Graded automatically in public every Tuesday

The guarantee: a red week means the next one is on us.

Graded on the public record every Tuesday. If the card you paid for finishes negative, your next week is credited automatically.

Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.

The record and full details

Weekly card

Week 2 · 2026

16 games · 49 picks · generated Thursday, Sep 17 · graded automatically after the games

By gameStaff favorites

Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.

The locked card

49 picks across 16 games, a rated bet of the game in each.

Model probabilities against the devigged market, write-ups built from role data, every price line-shopped across 5 sportsbooks. Graded in public every Tuesday.

The guarantee: a red week means the next one is on us. Graded on the public record, credited automatically.

Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.

What you get, the record, the guarantee

Previous games

BUFThu 8:15pm ET

BUF 62% to score the first touchdown, BUF -5.4

PriceBookModelMarket

Khalil ShakirWR+1600BetMGM7%4%

First TD: Josh Allen +750Write-ups and odds

ATLSun 1pm ET

CAR 53% to score the first touchdown, CAR -2.4

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Chuba Hubbard +525Write-ups and odds

BALSun 1pm ET

BAL 67% to score the first touchdown, BAL -8.5

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Derrick Henry +300Write-ups and odds

CHISun 1pm ET

CHI 60% to score the first touchdown, CHI -4.5. Thin early-season data on one side

PriceBookModelMarket

No touchdown scoredWrite-ups and odds

HOUSun 1pm ET

HOU 56% to score the first touchdown, HOU -2.5

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Ja'Marr Chase +750Write-ups and odds

TBSun 1pm ET

TB 67% to score the first touchdown, TB -8.5

PriceBookModelMarket

Denzel BostonWR+2000DraftKings9%3%

First TD: Emeka Egbuka +950Write-ups and odds

NYJSun 1pm ET

GB 55% to score the first touchdown, GB -3.4

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: MarShawn Lloyd +750Write-ups and odds

NESun 1pm ET

NE 61% to score the first touchdown, NE -5. Thin early-season data on one side

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: TreVeyon Henderson +1200Write-ups and odds

TENSun 1pm ET

PHI 61% to score the first touchdown, PHI -7

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Cam Ward +3000Write-ups and odds

DENSun 4:05pm ET

DEN 56% to score the first touchdown, DEN -2.6

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Bhayshul Tuten +1100Write-ups and odds

LACSun 4:05pm ET

LAC 64% to score the first touchdown, LAC -6.6

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Tre Tucker +1800Write-ups and odds

ARISun 4:25pm ET

SEA 56% to score the first touchdown, SEA -3.9

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +700Write-ups and odds

DALSun 4:25pm ET

DAL 59% to score the first touchdown, DAL -4

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: CeeDee Lamb +800Write-ups and odds

SFSun 4:25pm ET

SF 74% to score the first touchdown, SF -13.2

PriceBookModelMarket

First TD: Christian McCaffrey +310Write-ups and odds

KCSun 8:20pm ET

KC 64% to score the first touchdown, KC -6.6

PriceBookModelMarket

Tyler WarrenTEScored first+1600FanDuel7%4%

First TD: Tyler Warren +1600Write-ups and odds

LAMon 8:15pm ET

LA 64% to score the first touchdown, LA -6.6

PriceBookModelMarket

Isaiah LikelyTE+2000DraftKings9%3%

Devin SingletaryRB+3000FanDuel6%2%

First TD: Davante Adams +675Write-ups and odds

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Edge is expected value at the best available price, after removing the vig from the consensus of five sportsbooks. Full graded track record