Week 2 · the locked card
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Graded on the public record every Tuesday. If the card you paid for finishes negative, your next week is credited automatically.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Weekly card
The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes NYG 36% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 9.4% against a devigged market 3.4% — +97% EV at +2000 (DraftKings). Changed teams this offseason — the number is driven by his current-team usage, not last year's role elsewhere.
Model 9.4%, market 3.4%, edge +97%
Carries the target-volume path: receivers lead all positions in first TDs, and nearly a quarter of them are 20+ yard strikes, which keeps the primary target live from anywhere on the field. The model makes CLE 33% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 8.6% against a devigged market 2.9% — +81% EV at +2000 (DraftKings).
Model 8.6%, market 2.9%, edge +81%
A red-zone target profile: for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as overall volume, and that's exactly what carries his number here. The model makes IND 36% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 6.9% against a devigged market 3.9% — +17% EV at +1600 (FanDuel).
Model 6.9%, market 3.9%, edge +17%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 13 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.