Week 7 · the locked card
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The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
With Zach Charbonnet out, Wilson inherits the work: the model now has him on about 90% of SEA's carries inside the 5, up from 54%, and 73% of the carries. He's SEA's market favourite and rated above the market (14.9% against a devigged 10.9%), a thin +8% edge at +625 (BetMGM).
Model 14.9%, market 10.9%, edge +8%
With Kyle Monangai out, Swift inherits the work: the model now has him on about 75% of CHI's carries inside the 5, up from 52%, and 66% of the carries. He's CHI's market favourite and rated above the market (17.7% against a devigged 14.8%), a thin +3% edge at +480 (BetRivers).
Model 17.7%, market 14.8%, edge +3%
Williams's role is growing: 82% of DAL's carries over the last two games, up from 70% on the season. He's DAL's market favourite and rated above the market (19.2% against a devigged 16.3%), a thin +1% edge at +425 (BetRivers).
Model 19.2%, market 16.3%, edge +1%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 11 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.