Week 8 · the locked card
The guarantee: a red week means the next one is on us.
Graded on the public record every Tuesday. If the card you paid for finishes negative, your next week is credited automatically.
Every NFL card from Week 8 and the NBA model every night. Cancel anytime from your account.
Weekly card
The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
Staff call. Swift has scored in three straight games, seven this season, and took 22 carries in Week 7. Our numbers make him 17.0% to score first against a devigged 15.3%, about +10% at +550. We moved off Sam Darnold: Seattle's short-yardage runs go to AJ Barner, Zach Charbonnet is expected back for goal-line work, and Darnold has no rushing touchdown this season.
Model 17.0%, market 15.3%, edge +10%
White has 22% of WAS's carries (No. 2 on the team) and 1 inside the 5. He's WAS's market favourite and rated above the market (12.8% against a devigged 9.2%), a thin +9% edge at +750 (DraftKings). The spread makes WAS 62% to score first.
Model 12.8%, market 9.2%, edge +9%
Staff call. Jacobs is back from six weeks on the Commissioner's Exempt List and took 58% of Green Bay's rushes in his first game back. The model still reads those six missed games as a demotion, which is why it starred Lloyd off carries Jacobs wasn't there for. Jacobs is the lead back and the most likely Packer to score first; at +510 the price is fair rather than generous. Staff call.
Model 10.9%, market 13.5%, edge -34%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 11 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every NFL card from Week 8 and the NBA model every night. Cancel anytime from your account.
Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.