NBA first basket, Thursday, October 29
Cavaliers at Hawks
First basket odds, stats and our pick, tip-off 8pm ET.
Our free pick
Onyeka Okongwu +900
At theScore Bet. Model 10.7%, market 8.7%, fair +834.
Jump ball
Allen v Okongwu
CLE 72% to win it
To score first
CLE 56%
The tip winner scores first 64% of the time
First basket
Pending
Before the tip
Every game through Oct 28. This season as counts, since 2022-23 beside it.
Jump ball, and our chance to win it
| This season, since 22-23 under it | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Won the tip | 2 of 470% | 1 of 547% |
| Scored first | 3 of 458% | 2 of 551% |
| After winning the tip | 2 of 266% | 0 of 169% |
| After losing the tip | 1 of 240% | 2 of 434% |
| Shots to their first basket | 1.32.0 | 1.62.0 |
| First point, free throws too | 3 of 458% | 2 of 550% |
Who scores first, player by player
| This season, out of his starts | Starts | First shot | Scored first | Team’s first | Scored first since 22-23 | Team’s first since 22-23 | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEthe five we model | |||||||
| Jarrett AllenJumper | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 41 of 287, 14% | 63 of 287, 22% | +575 |
| Evan Mobley | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 of 267, 15% | 65 of 267, 24% | +550 |
| James Harden | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 of 283, 6% | 37 of 283, 13% | +900 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 of 268, 17% | 78 of 268, 29% | +700 |
| Peyton Watson | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 of 68, 7% | 10 of 68, 15% | +1000 |
| ATLthe five we model | |||||||
| Onyeka OkongwuJumper | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 of 134, 11% | 27 of 134, 20% | +900 |
| Jalen Johnson | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 of 171, 12% | 31 of 171, 18% | +850 |
| CJ McCollum | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 of 262, 9% | 50 of 262, 19% | +900 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 of 109, 7% | 17 of 109, 16% | +900 |
| Dyson Daniels | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 of 184, 9% | 35 of 184, 19% | +1200 |
First basket odds at every book
Prices when we posted. Best price in green. Market is the books’ chance with the margin taken out.
The model on every player is for subscribers: our chance, the fair price and the edge at the best price.
| Player | Model | Fair | Edge | Market | BetMGM | BetRivers | Fanatics | PartyCasino | SugarHouse | theScore Bet | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett AllenJumper | 18% | +575 | +500 | +460 | +575 | +500 | +475 | +500 | |||
| Donovan Mitchell | 15% | +525 | +700 | +600 | +525 | +700 | +600 | +700 | |||
| Evan Mobley | 14% | +550 | +450 | +460 | +550 | +450 | +425 | ||||
| Jalen Johnson | 12% | +725 | +800 | +850 | +725 | +800 | +800 | +850 | |||
| Peyton Watson | 9% | +775 | +900 | +800 | +775 | +900 | +1000 | ||||
| James Harden | 9% | +875 | +800 | +900 | +875 | +800 | +900 | ||||
| Onyeka OkongwuJumper | 9% | +800 | +900 | +850 | +800 | +900 | +900 | ||||
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 9% | +825 | +900 | +900 | +825 | +900 | +800 | ||||
| CJ McCollum | 8% | +875 | +900 | +850 | +875 | +900 | +900 | ||||
| Dyson Daniels | 7% | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 | +1100 |