Week 4 · the locked card
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Weekly card
The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
15 targets ranks No. 2 in PHI's target tree, 3 of them inside the 10. PHI have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 3 this season (12 of 17 last year); LA have conceded it in 0 of 3 (7 of 17 last year). The model makes PHI 46% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 9.7% against a devigged market 3.2%: +95% EV at +1900 (DraftKings). Changed teams this offseason: the number is driven by his current-team usage, not last year's role elsewhere.
Model 9.7%, market 3.2%, edge +95%
16 targets ranks No. 3 in CLE's target tree, 2 of them inside the 10. CLE have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 3 this season (8 of 17 last year); PIT have conceded it in 2 of 3 (8 of 17 last year). The model makes CLE 47% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 10.2% against a devigged market 4.4%: +63% EV at +1500 (BetMGM).
Model 10.2%, market 4.4%, edge +63%
19 targets ranks No. 3 in NO's target tree, 5 of them inside the 10; for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as volume. NO have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 3 this season (3 of 17 last year); ATL have conceded it in 2 of 3 (10 of 17 last year). The model makes NO 56% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 7.8% against a devigged market 4.7%: +17% EV at +1400 (BetRivers). Staff call: starred as the published free pick; the pick we give out is the bet of the game.
Model 7.8%, market 4.7%, edge +17%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 13 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.