Week 5 · the locked card
The guarantee: a red week means the next one is on us.
Graded on the public record every Tuesday. If the card you paid for finishes negative, your next week is credited automatically.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Weekly card
The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
54 carries leads this backfield, with 3 inside the 5 and 25 targets. When goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. LA have scored the game's opening TD in 3 of 4 this season (10 of 17 last year); BUF have conceded it in 3 of 4 (8 of 17 last year). The model makes LA 57% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 19.0% against a devigged market 12.3%: +14% EV at +500 (DraftKings).
Model 19.0%, market 12.3%, edge +14%
Model 25.1%, market 21.7%, edge -2%
21 targets last week and 4 of Dallas's 10 targets inside the 10, the most on the team; 4 TDs this season. DAL have scored the game's opening TD in 2 of 4 this season. The model makes DAL 67% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 12.2% against a devigged market 11.7%. Priced at +625 on Kalshi (7.25x) at the time of the call; best sportsbook +575 (BetMGM, BetRivers). Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (Javonte Williams +380) on the play-calling read.
Model 12.2%, market 11.7%, edge -11%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 12 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.