Week 6 · the locked card
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Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
Weekly card
The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
McCaffrey owns SF's goal line: 8 of 9 carries inside the 5 this season (89%), on top of 44% of all carries. He's SF's market favourite and still underpriced: 23.8% against a devigged 19.5%, +12% EV at +370 (BetRivers). The spread makes SF 65% to score first. Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (John Bates) on the most-likely-scorer read.
Model 23.8%, market 19.5%, edge +12%
With Zach Charbonnet out, Wilson inherits the work: the model now has him on about 97% of SEA's carries inside the 5, up from 58%, and 72% of the carries. He's SEA's market favourite and rated above the market (14.7% against a devigged 12.8%), but the best price, +550 (DraftKings), still sits a touch short of fair (-5% EV). Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (George Holani) on the most-likely-scorer read.
Model 14.7%, market 12.8%, edge -5%
Williams's role is growing: 82% of DAL's carries over the last two games, up from 69% on the season. He's DAL's market favourite and rated above the market (15.9% against a devigged 14.7%), but the best price, +450 (DraftKings), still sits a touch short of fair (-12% EV). Staff call: starred over the model's top-EV pick (Kaleb Johnson) on the most-likely-scorer read.
Model 15.9%, market 14.7%, edge -12%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 9 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.