Week 3 · the locked card
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The bet of the game from every matchup: the one pick per game that counts toward our record, rated 1-5 by the size of the edge.
19 carries leads this backfield. When goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. GB have scored the game's opening TD in 2 of 2 this season (10 of 17 last year); ATL have conceded it in 1 of 2 (10 of 17 last year). The model makes GB 60% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 16.2% against a devigged market 6.1%: +94% EV at +1100 (BetMGM).
Model 16.2%, market 6.1%, edge +94%
18 targets leads NYG's target tree, 1 of them inside the 10; for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as volume. NYG have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 2 this season (10 of 17 last year); TEN have conceded it in 1 of 2 (12 of 17 last year). The model makes NYG 57% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 13.7% against a devigged market 4.8%: +92% EV at +1300 (FanDuel). Changed teams this offseason: the number is driven by his current-team usage, not last year's role elsewhere.
Model 13.7%, market 4.8%, edge +92%
23 targets leads ARI's target tree, 4 of them inside the 10; for tight ends, inside-10 target share is roughly twice as predictive of first TDs as volume. ARI have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 2 this season (6 of 17 last year); SF have conceded it in 1 of 2 (7 of 17 last year). The model makes ARI 33% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 8.5% against a devigged market 4.3%: +45% EV at +1600 (DraftKings).
Model 8.5%, market 4.3%, edge +45%
11 targets ranks No. 2 in LV's target tree, 1 of them inside the 10. LV have scored the game's opening TD in 2 of 2 this season (6 of 17 last year); NO have conceded it in 2 of 2 (14 of 17 last year). The model makes LV 43% to score this game's first touchdown. Best of this board without clearing our strict value bar: model 7.9% vs market 4.0% at +1600 (BetRivers). A lean, not a table-thumper.
Model 7.9%, market 4.0%, edge +34%
19 carries leads this backfield. When goal-line role and volume split, the goal-line back scores 61% of the time. PHI have scored the game's opening TD in 1 of 2 this season (12 of 17 last year); CHI have conceded it in 1 of 2 (7 of 17 last year). The model makes PHI 57% to score this game's first touchdown. Model 18.9% against a devigged market 13.7%: +13% EV at +500 (DraftKings).
Model 18.9%, market 13.7%, edge +13%
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The role is measured, not guessed: carries, red-zone looks and both teams' opening-score form back this one at the listed price. The full case with numbers is on the unlocked card.
The free picks are open above. 11 more staff favorites, rated and written up, are on the unlocked card.
Every weekly card while subscribed, starting with Week 8. Cancel anytime from your account. This week's card is final; the Week 8 card drops Thursday morning and you're in the moment it's live.
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Ratings are mechanical: they track the model's edge over the devigged market consensus at the best available price, and every favorite passes a role check against current-season usage before it ships.